San Francisco temperature market
Our model calls 66–67°F for the highest temperature at KSFO today; the market prices 70–71°F. Full bucket ladder, our probability against the traded price, and the station it settles on.
We call 66–67°F; the market's leading bucket is 70–71°F. The gap is where the disagreement sits.
Every bucket, our probability against the price
| Bucket | Our probability | Market price | Edge | Depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70–71°F | 6.3% | 41.5% | -35.2 | $958 |
| 68–69°F | 24.9% | 33.0% | -8.1 | $627 |
| 72–73°F | 1.7% | 17.0% | -15.3 | $1,185 |
| 66–67°F | 37.7% | 7.0% | +30.7 | $851 |
| 74–75°F | 0.1% | 3.0% | -2.9 | $692 |
| 62–63°F | 3.9% | 0.6% | +3.3 | $1,169 |
| 64–65°F | 23.2% | 0.5% | +22.7 | $652 |
| 76–77°F | 0.9% | 0.2% | +0.7 | $1,473 |
| 78–79°F | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 | $6,730 |
| 61°F or below | 1.3% | 0.1% | +1.2 | $1,592 |
| 80°F or higher | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.0 | $7,453 |
Edge is our probability minus the market's on the same bucket, in points. Model output, not investment advice.
How the number was reached
The call is a weighted blend. Each input below is an estimate of where the day finishes, and the centre is where they balance.
| Input | Says | Share of the blend |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly curve C | 66.2°F | 35% |
| Hourly curve F | 68.0°F | 32% |
| Daily forecast | 68.0°F | 18% |
| 15-day analog | 67.1°F | 16% |
Centre 67.2°F, with a floor at 57.2°F because the station has already printed it.
The station it settles on, and the field around it
KSFO at San Francisco International Airport Station is the only station that pays out. The rest are context: what the air arriving from around San Francisco is doing.
| Station | Distance | Now | Max today |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSFO | settlement | -- | 14°C |
| KHAF | 15km | -- | 14°C |
| KSQL | 17km | -- | 15°C |
| KOAK | 24km | -- | 14°C |
| KHWD | 28km | -- | 15°C |
| KNUQ | 35km | -- | 13°C |
| KCCR | 51km | -- | 14°C |
| KSJC | 54km | -- | 13°C |
Station readings are Celsius instrument values, while this market is priced in Fahrenheit.
Questions
- How is the San Francisco temperature market settled?
- On the highest temperature recorded at KSFO, San Francisco International Airport Station, in that station's own daily history for the local calendar day. No other station counts, and the reading is taken in whole degrees Fahrenheit.
- When does it close?
- At midnight in San Francisco's own local time, so the countdown differs from every other city on the board. The whole local day is measured before it settles.
- Where does your probability come from?
- A weighted blend of the station's own printed maximum so far, what the same station did from this exact hour on each of the last fifteen days, and the forecast stack. Once the day starts reporting, the observations carry roughly two thirds of the call and the forecast the rest.
- Is this trading advice?
- No. It is model output published beside the traded price so the two can be compared. A model with a good record can still be wrong on any given day.
Trade it
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Temperatures from Weather Underground station history and forecasts. Market prices are live. Model output, not investment advice.