Chicago temperature market
Our model calls 70–71°F for the highest temperature at KORD today; the market prices 72–73°F. Full bucket ladder, our probability against the traded price, and the station it settles on.
We call 70–71°F; the market's leading bucket is 72–73°F. The gap is where the disagreement sits.
Every bucket, our probability against the price
| Bucket | Our probability | Market price | Edge | Depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72–73°F | 20.0% | 56.5% | -36.5 | $734 |
| 74–75°F | 4.2% | 28.0% | -23.8 | $771 |
| 70–71°F | 33.2% | 13.0% | +20.2 | $628 |
| 76–77°F | 0.2% | 4.5% | -4.2 | $710 |
| 68–69°F | 23.9% | 1.8% | +22.1 | $1,047 |
| 78–79°F | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.2 | $2,146 |
| 66–67°F | 8.3% | 0.1% | +8.2 | $2,087 |
| 63°F or below | 9.1% | 0.1% | +9.0 | $3,391 |
| 64–65°F | 1.1% | 0.1% | +1.0 | $2,644 |
| 80–81°F | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.0 | $2,575 |
| 82°F or higher | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.0 | $3,082 |
Edge is our probability minus the market's on the same bucket, in points. Model output, not investment advice.
How the number was reached
The call is a weighted blend. Each input below is an estimate of where the day finishes, and the centre is where they balance.
| Input | Says | Share of the blend |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly curve C | 71.6°F | 35% |
| Hourly curve F | 71.0°F | 32% |
| Daily forecast | 73.4°F | 18% |
| 15-day analog | 62.2°F | 16% |
Centre 70.3°F, with a floor at 55.4°F because the station has already printed it.
The station it settles on, and the field around it
KORD at O'Hare International Airport Station is the only station that pays out. The rest are context: what the air arriving from around Chicago is doing.
| Station | Distance | Now | Max today |
|---|---|---|---|
| KORD | settlement | -- | 13°C |
| KPWK | 18km | -- | 12°C |
| KMDW | 24km | -- | 13°C |
| KDPA | 27km | -- | 9°C |
| KLOT | 40km | -- | 13°C |
| KUGN | 46km | -- | 11°C |
| KARR | 51km | -- | 8°C |
| KGYY | 61km | -- | 15°C |
Station readings are Celsius instrument values, while this market is priced in Fahrenheit.
Questions
- How is the Chicago temperature market settled?
- On the highest temperature recorded at KORD, O'Hare International Airport Station, in that station's own daily history for the local calendar day. No other station counts, and the reading is taken in whole degrees Fahrenheit.
- When does it close?
- At midnight in Chicago's own local time, so the countdown differs from every other city on the board. The whole local day is measured before it settles.
- Where does your probability come from?
- A weighted blend of the station's own printed maximum so far, what the same station did from this exact hour on each of the last fifteen days, and the forecast stack. Once the day starts reporting, the observations carry roughly two thirds of the call and the forecast the rest.
- Is this trading advice?
- No. It is model output published beside the traded price so the two can be compared. A model with a good record can still be wrong on any given day.
Trade it
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Temperatures from Weather Underground station history and forecasts. Market prices are live. Model output, not investment advice.